My personal portfolio performance (since inception)

In this post i will talk about my portfolio and how it has performed over the year. I will also briefly talk about my positions and some of the risks they may entail. I will be writing another post soon about the reporting season and more details about how i think companies have done.

It has been one year from today since i started my portfolio. I discovered my passion (investing) after reading One up on Wall Street by the pioneer mutual fund manager Peter Lynch. The book was recommended to me by one of my lectures and it changed my life. After reading that book i started to read about Warren Buffett and came across Ben Graham and the like. Their investment philosophy instantly made sense to me and i haven't looked back since.

When i first started i tried to sought out stocks solely trading at discounts to net tangible assets or net assets. With that, i bought my first stock Aveo Group (ASX: AOG). At the time i thought it was a great idea. However, upon closer inspection of the numbers, the business wasn't one of quality and so i sold. As i read more and more about investing i began to search for businesses of higher quality as opposed to "troubled" ones. That, in a nutshell has summed up my transformation. I search for "value growth" stocks where i try and find companies that intersect both categories and try and meet in the middle. To sum it up in a quote it is the act of "buying good businesses at fair prices". My "value growth" fund is a high conviction fund where i allocate large portions of total funds in a small number of companies. These companies are researched quite heavily and detailed analysis is undertaken (at least i think so). I attempt to make outsized risk-adjusted returns which is uncorrelated with the general market. This also entails little attention to market analysis (interest rate forecasting and the like) but rather, i attempt to gain a serious level of understanding of the underlying companies and their futures. This method, i believe provides a good level of downside protection with the potential for triple digit percentage gains.

To the contrary, i also have a "contrarian" fund whereby i seek out terrible business trading at extreme discounts to intrinsic value. While Ben Graham would disagree with my "split" investing styles, my aim is to prove it can work. This style of investing is deemed "scary" and there are very, very few people who can actually allocate money to the companies i look at in this space. You essentially, buy into companies who loss are making (not necessarily) and are typically in industries which are struggling and there is ample negativity sourronding such stocks in the media (if they're even mentioned). More on this when i develop this fund further and have more positions. The two styles seem contradictory, and to an extent they are, but make no mistake, they produce shareholder returns like no other.

When i first made my purchase of Aveo i had the aim of achieving a one year return net of costs of 15%. This was an ambitious target but I tried anyhow. The 2014 calendar year was a terrible year for the ASX200 rising approximately 1.6% in value. With that said, I believe my returns have been relatively good. My portfolio from 22/2/14 to the 22/2/15 had a total return (capital growth and dividends) of 17.91%. This return is net of all costs (brokerage fees).

Most of this performance was driven by capital growth as most of the stocks i own pay next to none in dividends (which makes sense given the nature of value growth investing). My biggest loser in terms of percentage loss and weighting was G8 Education (ASX: GEM). Diminishing by about 25% over the year, it definitely took a toll on my return. To the contrary, my biggest winner in terms of both percentage gain and weighting was Sirtex Medical (ASX: SRX). Surging about 57%, it was a star performer.

In response of what has been said, (and other reasons) I have sold out of G8 Education, as their results were much lower than expected, and I seriously begun to question the premium for this company. While i still believe it is undervalued, I am not comfortable in holding this company and so i sold out. I actually have a price target of just under $8 for this stock but i have revised it down due to their (in my opinion) disappointing results.

On the other hand, Sirtex Medical is a company i have valued using two different methods of valuation. Using one of them, I have a growth value per share of about $26-28. This number is barring the consequences of their upcoming SIRFLOX study. If the results come out positive and the respective uptake in SIR-Spheres eventuate, I have a growth target of about $95. I also have a bear case of about $10-12. This is an interesting one to watch unfold.

I'd like to point out that the other companies in the portfolio haven't been mentioned. I also computed a weighted average beta,  which is lower than the market. I may also compute a Sharpe and st dv of my portfolio. This was done to justify the lower risk i mention in the open. Although i don't use these metrics ever, i have as they are conventional measures of risk.

Once again, for the upcoming year I will aim to achieve a 15% return net of costs. It's important to emphasize the fact that this only a one year record of performance. This is usually not a good indicator of future performance. A much more useful time period is between 5-10 years.  I’d like to express my gratitude toward my lecturer Lindsay Stubbs, who without his guidance which led me toward the likes of Peter Lynch, this wouldn’t have been possible.  

General commentary

 Governor of the RBA, Glenn Stevens, made the call to cut the cash rate this week. The move sparked an immediate 30 point jump in the ASX200, which has now reached levels not seen until pre-GFC. The typical yield paying stocks saw continued share price appreciation. With the oil price rebounding about 10% this week, most energy stocks also saw a rebound. Virgin came out this week with a profit guidance stating that it will see a "PBT of $5.3 million for the second quarter of the 2015 financial year, representing a $47.6 million improvement over the prior corresponding period. For the financial year-to-date ending 31 December 2014, this equates to an Underlying Profit Before Tax of $10.3 million". Qantas is also set to see profits as well if not now then very soon. While the share price of both stocks have surged, especially Qantas and optimism surrounding these stocks are high, it'll be interesting to see how it will play out over the next few years (or potentially longer, depending on how long the oil price will remain at these depressed levels).

While interest rate cuts are great for people with mortgages, (questions about whether real estate is over/under valued will not be discussed here)  businesses and consumer sentiment, we mustn't  forget why interest rates get cut. They usually get cut due to poor economic conditions which is one of the reasons Mr Stevens provided this week when he made his decision. When deciding what to do, I'd remind you to be "greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy." Despite, what share prices might do going forward and the potential superficial boost some stocks may be getting, prices in the long run reflect fundamentals, don't forget that.

In other news, as I mentioned in some previous posts, my first year of holding a portfolio is just under 2 weeks away. I've separated my portfolio into two different "funds". One a value growth and the other a contrarian fund. They will be talked about separately going forward (but i will mention each accordingly when spoken about). When i started out i set a target return on investment of 15%. This is still my target and I'll update the real performance in due course. Happy hunting over the reporting season.