Saturday, 7 February 2015

General commentary

 Governor of the RBA, Glenn Stevens, made the call to cut the cash rate this week. The move sparked an immediate 30 point jump in the ASX200, which has now reached levels not seen until pre-GFC. The typical yield paying stocks saw continued share price appreciation. With the oil price rebounding about 10% this week, most energy stocks also saw a rebound. Virgin came out this week with a profit guidance stating that it will see a "PBT of $5.3 million for the second quarter of the 2015 financial year, representing a $47.6 million improvement over the prior corresponding period. For the financial year-to-date ending 31 December 2014, this equates to an Underlying Profit Before Tax of $10.3 million". Qantas is also set to see profits as well if not now then very soon. While the share price of both stocks have surged, especially Qantas and optimism surrounding these stocks are high, it'll be interesting to see how it will play out over the next few years (or potentially longer, depending on how long the oil price will remain at these depressed levels).

While interest rate cuts are great for people with mortgages, (questions about whether real estate is over/under valued will not be discussed here)  businesses and consumer sentiment, we mustn't  forget why interest rates get cut. They usually get cut due to poor economic conditions which is one of the reasons Mr Stevens provided this week when he made his decision. When deciding what to do, I'd remind you to be "greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy." Despite, what share prices might do going forward and the potential superficial boost some stocks may be getting, prices in the long run reflect fundamentals, don't forget that.

In other news, as I mentioned in some previous posts, my first year of holding a portfolio is just under 2 weeks away. I've separated my portfolio into two different "funds". One a value growth and the other a contrarian fund. They will be talked about separately going forward (but i will mention each accordingly when spoken about). When i started out i set a target return on investment of 15%. This is still my target and I'll update the real performance in due course. Happy hunting over the reporting season.


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