Friday, 5 December 2014

G8 Education (ASX: GEM) has this week released an EBIT guidance for the financial year. Furthermore, it has also lifted its dividend. While they have said they will exceed the consensus estimates by less than 5% be mindful that they have said this in the past and it hasn't happened. So extrapolating these uncertain figures using the guidance might not over the long run be optimal and may lead to drastic differences resulting from only a small change in the EBIT.

The main topic i wish to talk about is Mount Gibson Iron (ASX: MGX) which on Friday resumed trading after one of their main mines flooded late last month. Upon recommencement, the shares closed down about 50%. This is not the main point i want to get across. The main point is that when i talked about buying MGX a few posts ago, i mentioned i cancelled as i believe the cash balance could diminish rapidly, and, indeed it is. Over $100m has been spent and only about $360m remains. This sounds like a lot and it is, but what is concerning is the rate at which the cash is evaporating. I'm still interested in buying into the business, however, my price is now revised all the way down to about $0.08-0.10. This is the margin of safety i now require, as i will not be including much of the cash in my net-net calculation.

A subtle but important note to make is that in my original post, i mentioned wanting to buy in at a price of $0.43, and now I'm talking about buying into the same company only weeks later for a price of $0.10. This is a worrying difference on my part, which is something that is gradually being addressed.

Vita Life Sciences (ASX: VSC) has also updated the market on its expansion into Indonesia, whicb has now started. It will interesting to see the numbers they provide us over the coming year. I also noticed a contarian New Zealand based fund manager which goes by the name of Pie Funds Management also hold a position in VSC, although I'm not sure if they still do. After a brief review of their investment philosophy/ track records and the like, it's strikingly interesting  to see they have bought into VSC (however, i would like to know when they bought in).

On the other hand, I've stumbled across a very small market cap company (trading with a market cap of less than $50m)  which is in a tight situation, but an attractive one (in my opinion). It also has an identified catalyst (although i wont say it's guaranteed, as nothing really is)  which may boost value realisation to shareholders. More on this later on.

Lastly, I'd like to point out that my first year of holding a portfolio is approaching. I will detail a post on this in due course. In it, i will mostly be talking about my positions and the risks which i believe they entail, which is something that is extremely important.As some of my positions are in contradiction to my underlying philosophy it may be confusing to read these posts as it may seem I'm all over the place in terms of what I'm saying and what I'm actually doing. A long, and detailed post will address this in the near future. 

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